Weather

Review

The industry received near-average and well distributed rainfall in October (Figure 1). This was a welcome break from the prolonged period of below average rainfall which had persisted across most parts of the industry through autumn and winter, 2024.

The main irrigation water sources are stable therefore no water restrictions are anticipated in the immediate future.

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for May to October 2024 compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status is still in a neutral state and is predicted to transition towards a weak La Niña state during the 2024/25 summer season, albeit with significant uncertainty in the projections (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Monthly sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific. (source: NOAA Climate.gov)

The South African Weather Services predicts slightly above normal rainfall while the International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts both predict normal rainfall for the eastern parts of the country during the 2024/25 summer season.

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.