Review

The industry received below average rainfall during autumn and winter 2024 (Figure 1).  Despite parts of the industry recording some heavy downpours in April and early June, as reported in the previous edition of The Link, the extended dry conditions resulted in considerable crop water stress in most rainfed areas during the winter period.

Minimum temperatures during the 2024 winter season were generally mild, but a cold spell in early July resulted in parts of the Midlands, Zululand and Mpumalanga recording sub-zero temperatures and subsequent crop damage from back frost.

All major irrigation water sources remain well replenished.

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for April to August 2024 compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status is currently in a neutral state. Borderline La Niña conditions are expected for October to December, but with uncertainty in the predictions.

The South African Weather Services predicts slightly above normal rainfall while the International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts both predict normal rainfall for the eastern parts of the country during the 2024/25 summer season.  Above average temperatures are expected.

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.