Phillemon Sithole (Agrometeorologist)
Review
The rainfed sugarcane producing areas in KwaZulu-Natal received good, well-distributed rainfall in January 2025. This followed the significant rainfall received since the onset of the 2024/25 summer rainfall season in October 2024 (Figure 1). However, heavy rainfall during the second half of February in parts of the coastal regions caused localised flooding, which sadly resulted in the loss of lives. In the northern irrigated region of Mpumalanga, rainfall over the review period was generally below average, except for January 2025 when well above average rainfall was recorded.
The major irrigation water sources are currently at or near full capacity and therefore no irrigation restrictions are anticipated for the foreseeable future.
Figure 1 (right): Regional average monthly total rainfall for October 2024 to February 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).
Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for October 2024 to February 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).
Outlook
The weak La Niña state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) persists since December 2024. Equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted for autumn and winter 2025, but will have little bearing on rainfall patterns in the eastern parts of South Africa over that period.
The International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts both predict normal rainfall during autumn and winter 2025 across all the sugarcane producing areas of the country.
Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.
