Review

The industry continued to receive excellent and well-distributed rainfall in all the agro-climatic regions of KwaZulu-Natal over the review period. This bodes well for the rainfed crop. However, the irrigated region of Mpumalanga has largely received below normal rainfall since the onset of the rainfall season in October 2024 (Figure 1). The only exception was January 2025 when the region recorded well above average rainfall.

Despite the low rainfall in Mpumalanga, all the major irrigation water sources remain well replenished, therefore no immediate irrigation restrictions are expected.

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for October 2024 to April 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifted into an ENSO-neutral state since mid-April 2025. The neutral phase is expected to last through to spring 2025 but with limited influence on winter rainfall patterns in the eastern parts of South Africa.

The South African Weather Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts all predict mostly below normal rainfall for early-, mid- and late-winter, 2025, across all the sugarcane producing regions of South Africa. Mild winter temperatures are predicted over the same period.

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.