Review

The industry has experienced extended dry conditions since the onset of the 2025 winter season, with most parts recording very little rain between May and August 2025. Only July recorded normal to above normal rainfall over that period (Figure 1). The dry conditions do not bode well for the spring planting operations in the rainfed areas and may pose other water stress-related threats to the crop, should the dry spell persist.

All the major irrigation water sources remain stable, thanks to good summer rainfall earlier in the year. No drastic irrigation water restrictions are anticipated this season.

Figure 1: Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for March to August 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a neutral state and is projected to last through the upcoming 2025/26 summer season, with chances of a transition towards a weak La Niña. ENSO-neutral conditions are generally associated with normal summer rainfall for the eastern parts of South Africa.   

The South African Weather Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts all predict normal to above-normal early summer (OND) rainfall for most parts of the industry.   

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.