Review

Overall, the industry received good rainfall during spring and early summer (September to December) 2025, despite the below average rainfall recorded in October (Figure 1). Parts of the Midlands and Mpumalanga received high intensity rainfall in November. Rainfall amounts exceeding 150 mm within 12 hours were recording around New Hanover, in the Midlands North region, on 23 November 2025 causing considerable damage to infrastructure and sadly, loss of life. 

Irrigation water sources remain well replenished across the industry.  

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for September to December 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is currently in the La Niña phase, which is expected to last through the remainder of the 2025/26 summer season before shifting towards ENSO-neutral conditions.  The general rainfall outlook for late summer to early autumn (February-March-April) 2026 is normal to above-normal for most of the industry. 

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.