Review

The second half of the 2025/26 summer rainfall season was generally characterised by below average rainfall for most of KwaZulu-Natal, particularly the coastal regions (Figure 1). This trend continued into early autumn (March and April) 2026.

Good summer rainfall in Mpumalanga and the northern Zululand catchment areas ensured that all the major irrigation water sources are well replenished across the industry. No drastic irrigation water restrictions are anticipated.

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for January to April, 2026, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system has transitioned from a weak La Niña phase, to ENSO-neutral conditions. A rapid shift towards an El Niño state is anticipated within the next few months. The is no strong relationship between the ENSO phenomena and winter weather patterns across the sugar producing areas of eastern South Africa therefore it is advised to follow the winter climate forecasts closely for updates.

Figure 2:The ENSO seasonal probability for 2026, showing a likely rapid transition from neutral to El Nino conditions during winter 2026 (Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/).

The South African Weather Services and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society predict above normal winter rainfall for the eastern coastal regions of the country, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts near normal rainfall. Mild minimum temperatures are anticipated.

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.