Review

Following extended periods of dry conditions during winter, there was welcome relief in September when above average rainfall was recorded across the industry (Figure 1). The spring rainfall was a timely boost for crop reestablishment operations particularly in the rainfed areas. Total rainfall for October was below average, but well distributed. This helped with recovery in stressed ratoon crops while supporting good germination in newly established fields.       

Water supplies in the irrigated areas remain stable, therefore no drastic irrigation water restrictions are anticipated this summer.  

Figure 1: Regional average monthly total rainfall for May to October 2025, compared to the corresponding long-term means (LTM).

Outlook

A La Niña advisory has been issued for the 2025/26 summer, which means that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected towards a La Niña phase during this summer season. This generally favours above average summer rainfall over the eastern parts of the country.     

The South African Weather Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts all predict normal to above-normal early summer rainfall for the industry.   

Please visit the SASRI WeatherWeb https://sasri.sasa.org.za/weatherweb for the latest industry weather reports and links to up-to-date seasonal climate forecasts.